Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 203.624686 246.369442 298.975117 369.573487 463.560313 5.869481e+02 7.656792e+02
2025-06-29 154.943775 204.628239 273.606987 380.078678 547.609033 8.153837e+02 1.310204e+03
2025-07-06 124.679861 174.279889 248.895425 375.962483 602.526224 1.027034e+03 2.002301e+03
2025-07-13 112.454793 165.336338 250.905853 410.859459 734.036328 1.452049e+03 3.589067e+03
2025-07-20 102.600553 157.218313 251.141125 441.483519 872.493793 2.003913e+03 6.481526e+03
2025-07-27 93.834676 148.784009 248.228930 464.400296 1007.305266 2.683695e+03 1.177714e+04
2025-08-03 85.829682 140.010996 242.378117 478.848859 1130.991350 3.486661e+03 2.163334e+04
2025-08-10 78.244240 130.626882 233.172822 482.549193 1229.110665 4.351574e+03 3.960272e+04
2025-08-17 70.778819 120.294017 219.945569 472.388480 1280.755404 5.120691e+03 6.910345e+04
2025-08-24 64.267604 110.893759 206.973705 459.154665 1316.624790 5.906670e+03 1.236323e+05
2025-08-31 58.653646 102.545652 194.877998 444.964313 1342.944809 6.729756e+03 2.330540e+05
2025-09-07 57.551070 103.118542 202.779507 489.542211 1637.143662 1.042371e+04 1.715937e+06
2025-09-14 53.889076 98.095130 197.256383 494.279932 1775.356563 1.356637e+04 2.076543e+07
2025-09-21 51.271870 94.977772 195.825566 512.021418 2001.336616 1.935766e+04 NaN
2025-09-28 47.835150 89.661013 188.037372 506.356797 2102.647323 2.444058e+04 NaN
2025-10-05 47.167391 90.382647 195.777070 558.174936 2618.992042 4.622875e+04 NaN
2025-10-12 46.153222 90.175081 201.055949 604.066808 3190.096870 9.105915e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 44.744629 88.863759 203.075284 638.674988 3758.937824 1.825817e+05 NaN
2025-10-26 43.032014 86.620253 202.051681 660.610718 4280.485499 3.697055e+05 NaN
2025-11-02 41.013420 83.410373 197.667598 666.242851 4668.145873 7.145324e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 38.643332 79.101523 189.348459 650.791853 4801.343300 1.152518e+06 NaN
2025-11-16 36.371745 74.841458 180.612321 630.734095 4857.436451 1.800113e+06 NaN
2025-11-23 34.265807 70.822193 172.103188 609.311234 4871.969829 2.800849e+06 NaN